1 If it happens at all, takes time. Process hardly possible if not having below or similar events. A plausible timeline for this process could be:
this might take a couple of months at least
- Lava Jato investigation (by itself probably another topic for a long explanation) brings more politicians to court and present evidence of direct involvement of PT and PMDB politicians in taking money.
- Politicians and construction companies executives cited by its turn incriminate directly Dilma or Lula.
if so then in few weeks
- Media and organized groups increase expression of lack of legitimacy ofDilma.
- Watch for groups such as OAB (Ordem dos Advogados do Brasil ‘Brazil Lawyers Bar Association), UNE (students), MST/MTST (Landless Rural Workers), Catraca Livre, Black Blocs, and others.
- Limited protests in cities. I mean <50k people in major cities, <5k in small cities. June 2013 protests showed a relatively unorganized, non-partisan, not institutional character. Leadership was apparently spread and much of organization was made through social networks, twitter and the likes.
then if State response is either totally negligible or negative. Especially if police repression includes any violence, except against Black Blocs
- Massive support of protests.
- This would have to include major TV and traditional news coverage giving daily coverage of at least 5% of its news coverage.
- Then we’d need at least 5 state capitals with protests in the 100 ks, Some big cities (>1mm population) in the 10ks and several smaller cities with protests of ~1k protesters. And this must include a significant support from different regions. Especially states of Bahia and Pernambuco in the northeast.
If so then in few weeks congress accepts impeachment process to start
- Commissions pretend they are debating evidences but in fact are probing administration officials and politicians to abandon Dilma.
- Ministers and allies start saying they were ‘betrayed’ by Dilma and either state that their alliance is to institutional administration (not personally to Dilma) or bluntly change sides.
- Once politicians manage to weave new political network, commissions approve impeachment as a votable and debatable matter at congress.
This might take a fews weeks but more likely a couple of months
- Congress vote impeachment.
- Impeachment follows to Senate.
- Time for new trial, with more time to defense etc.
At last moment it is likely she’d resign not to be impeached.
- Michel Temer, vice president under Dilma, steps up and sworn president.
- Significant cabinet change, some legal reforms opportunistically passed (Electoral, Fiscal) representing new political pact.
- Some things needed to change so all can stay the same. Elections in 2018, business as usual.
2 Impeachment is a political, not judicial, process. So even if you discount PMDB (biggest party) and small ‘independent’ parties that will most certainly flock to any group in power, as long as Dilma counts on PT and some historical left-wing allies odds for impeachment approval are not good.
PMDB and PT are the key political powers in this process. They are the core of the alliance that elected Dilma. What to watch in each:
PT is in midst of a crisis. PT is hled together by Lula’s leadership. Once Dilma’s mentor and closest ally, Lula has been more constantly seen criticizing Dilma’s policies. This could be staged criticism, but fact is that many politicians orbiting Lula have exposed cracks in PT support for Dilma. Dilma, on her turn, ‘took revenge’ of this lack of support by removing several PT head figures from key posts in her new cabinet. Dilma gives signs that she’s creating a new group of amalgamated small parties in order to have her own influence network not eclipsed by Lula. She could be paving a way to be out of PT in 2018. If PT-Roussef alliance fails, both sides would lose big. This could be a big step toward impeachment. If not by the fact of the observable internal disputes, treacheries and vendetas, and that this is doomed in ’18, not good to bet this is dismantling.
PMDB crisis is a different one. Having the largest number of congress and senators, they are part of every govt alliance since 1985. But never as head of the ticket. Now they have the vice president, as well as just elected chairman of Senate and chairman of Congress. This makes them 2nd, 3rd, and 4th in line in case of president absence. Their strength comes from regional political preeminence. Especially in small cities and less populous states. And this is exactly where Dilma is tackling them now. She replaced PMDB names for her new group of parties in posts that control budget for regional expenses. So at one time PMDB is being threatened by Dilma where vital, have the keys to any impeachment process to move, and are directly beneficiaries of an eventual Dilma impeachment.
Opposition (PSDB) has little to do in the process but for reverberating police, popular and court developments. And eventually benefit in new coalition with PMDB, in place of PT.
3 Re-read news checking for bias. Of course any report is tainted by perspective, so on (same applies to me, but at least you get to know mine). In this case, beware: financial markets are strongly against Dilma, and partly against PT. Market players, though in general more to the right than average voters, are not a political crowd. Most don’t know, care, or believe any of this matters. Even Dilma’s policies lack of popularity has more to do with interventionism than with any social, political agenda. So writers that cover financial markets will gladly write about (in favor of) impeachment, but when discussion fails to cover what’s around it you should get an extra bias discount.
50% of news that reach NY is written by and for people from Sao Paulo, 35% Rio de Janeiro, 10% Brasilia. That does cover significant part of population and economic activity, but is a particularly bad representation of political forces in Brazil. If weighted according to news producers, past election would have Aecio Neves victory by at least 5%. No wonder same people who would not vote for her now hurry to write and talk about impeachment.
That should cover for now. As always: feedback is most welcome; old caveats apply; if you have any question let me know; this is a very simplistic partial cut of what’s going on; I’ll keep you posted on significant events on the matter.